Empirical Hypothesis

I thought I'd write up a quick review of this card, since I think it's by far the best card in the TSK expansion and one of the best in the whole game, period, and none of the other reviews quite capture that.

What makes Empirical Hypothesis so good? Well, at level 0, if you just choose the "succeed by 3" mode every turn (as most users of this card will want to do 99% of the time), you have basically a slotless Lucky Cigarette Case that requires success by 3 instead of 2. (There are also other more subtle differences, like this can't trigger the turn you play it, and the draw is banked for when you want it--I'll discuss that later.) That's a heck of a card! Lucky Cigarette Case is a great, and still great when you have to succeed by 3. Doing so once a round is a natural occurrence for Seekers, who have great Intellect stats and want to investigate a lot, often multiple times a turn. In fact, even investigators who can't go beyond Seeker 0, like Finn Edwards and Norman Withers, should be interested in this card despite not being able to buy any of the customizations.

Okay, so what about the upgrades? In my view, the ones that spend evidence for alternative benefits (Research Grant and Irrefutable Proof) are not that good--the rate you get is not better than 1 evidence for 1 card, and you don't really need more than one payoff for your evidence. Plus, the power of card draw is that the cards you draw will do things--i.e., they'll find clues and generate money for you. If you draw a ton of cards, that's kind of all you need.

A key upgrade is Peer Review, which a) lets any investigator meet the criterion, and b) allows anyone to spend evidence to draw cards. Both are excellent and go well together. When your teammates can meet the criteria, it becomes trivial for this to trigger once a round (and with further upgrades multiple times a round), and at that point this spits out so many free cards for the team that you won't need them all, at which point it's very powerful that your teammates can tap into the cards.

Then you want Alternative Hypothesis and a couple more of the criteria: in the dark, I'd recommend Field Research and Independent Variable as the most generically applicable, though some investigators will prefer different ones. With these in tow, an average of two evidence per turn is easily achievable. That means 2+ extra cards per turn flexibly distributed throughout the group, which is grossly overpowered.

The fact that Empirical Hypothesis lets you bank the cards as evidence, which you can draw whenever you want, is super powerful for a number of reasons:

  • Because the cards are essentially stored as evidence, you get around hand size limits.
  • If it wouldn't be an opportune time to draw your weakness, you can hold off until you're in a spot where you can deal with it.
  • It lets you save your draw until an enemy arrives and machine-gun it down with Ancient Stone: Knowledge of the Elders.
  • If you have Peer Review, you can hold off on allocating the draw until it becomes clear which team member can make the best use of it.
  • You get to trivialize a notorious Forgotten Age Scenario.

There are plenty of investigator-specific synergies to be mentioned, for example:

  • Darrell Simmons has further uses for the evidence.
  • If Carolyn Fern is using Field Agent every turn, she can easily trigger Trial and Error that way.
  • The delayed draw helps optimize Harvey Walters' investigator ability, ensuring you never miss a turn of bonus draw.
  • It also helps Norman Withers optimize his own ability by better controlling the top of his deck.

Two more notes. First, if you're looking to optimize, don't get greedy and run only one copy of Empirical Hypothesis. Yes, you can only have one in play at a time, but if a card virtually wins the game for you, far better to draw a redundant copy than not find it in the early part of the scenario. Second, this card can massively slow the game down, and it's also easy to forget choosing a criteria at the start of the round. I recommend making a quasi-house rule whereby if you forget to declare the criteria, assume that you defaulted to "succeed by 3." This helps smooth over some of the play experiences with this card.

CaiusDrewart · 3189
I actually play the thesis with Luke and it's great. Can't wait to improve it with more xp from rabbit hole. — Tharzax · 1
Very thoughtful review. Card is a staple in our group, too. We also kind of agree, that Grant and Proof looked to be not worth it. Which is a shame, as it makes it kind of not a real customisable card. (You probably want to save some XP on something like Outlook, if you don't need it, but on a high level it is usually always the same card.) I wish, they had added instead an option like "Spend 2 evidence: Searches the top 3 cards of your deck for a card, draw it, and shuffles your deck." That way you could replace quantity draw by quality draw, which would be imho worth it. — Susumu · 371
I like research grant. Finally a replacement for Milan as my economy card. — Django · 5108
As I said I'm not a huge fan, but I do like Research Grant more than Irrefutable Proof for sure. I'd say that after you buy Peer Review, Alternative Hypothesis, and two more criteria, it's fine to spend the last two points on Research Grant rather than the last two criteria. — CaiusDrewart · 3189
Hi Susumu, I agree with you that this is one of the most poorly designed customizable cards; the upgrade paths aren't very balanced, the play pattern gums up the game a bit, and the card as a whole is too strong. I think a good Taboo for this card would be to just make the "evidence for a card" a customization (maybe costing 3? Not sure) rather than an innate ability on the card. A disadvantage is that the card would then be non-functional at level 0 for anyone except Darrell, but the card as a whole would be more balanced and interesting, imo. — CaiusDrewart · 3189
About the only good I can say for this design as far as gameplay is that, at least in comparison to the other OP Seeker cards they've printed, at least this one spreads the power around the whole team rather than having the Seeker alone pop off. — CaiusDrewart · 3189
Now add Fine Tuning and double its uses per round. — MrGoldbee · 1472
Vamp

Vamp makes you perform multiple skill tests in one single action, which can be used in some fun combos.

Fun combo 1 : Preston Fairmont can play vamp and easily fail all 4 tests (in hard or expert, there is no +1). After you end your turn, play Lifeline to get 4 more actions. You can double double the vamp to get 8 actions (Im not sure if you can double lifeline or not).

Fun combo 2 : Since you can decide the skill test order, you can fail first to play Grit Your Teeth, and get +1 in other 3 skill tests.

Fun combo 3 :Dirty Fighting and British Bull Dog--- ①Play Vamp, test to fail and show your bulldog. ②Test to autoevade the enemy, and triggers dirty fighting to shot with bulldog, deals 2 dmg. You got +2 in attack since the enemy is exhausted. ③Test other 2 skills. You still got +2 since the enemy is exhausted.

OnThinIce · 26
ok you cant double lifeline, max 1 per turn — OnThinIce · 26
Wither

While it has been mention in the 0 XP version that Eldritch Inspiration can be used in conjunction with Diana Stanley for cancelling the symbol effect, the upgrade offers an immense boost if used with Eldritch Inspiration, essentially making the card deal 1 more "damage".

Another synergy to emphasize (which has been mentioned briefly in another review) is token control: With Jacqueline Fine, Olive McBride, Premonition, Unrelenting, Third Time's a Charm, and surely other cards I missed, the additional "damage" output of this card becomes much more probable, which is great for an asset without uses.

One thing that might get missed rather easily though: If the enemy does not have at least 1 damage assigned to it you cannot kill it via the symbol effect (health reduction) alone.

AlderSign · 310
Also the effect only lasts until your turn is finished. So you probably want to kill it in your turn. — Tharzax · 1
4xp to turn a card into a situational vicious blow? — MrGoldbee · 1472
Phew, this is way more than a Vicious Blow, as pointed out by reviews all over this page. — AlderSign · 310
But it's also a lot less. Especially now when you can't combo two wither(4) with the upgraded sign magick — Tharzax · 1
Hunted by Byakhee

One of my favorite encounter card designs to date. Similar to The Shadow Behind You, Hunted by Byakhee plays mind games with you. Yes, you are unlikely to pass an (6) test, but if you manage to minimize your failure, Hunted could end up whiffing. On the other hand, it's equally likely that a Byakhee is right on top, wasting any investment you made to minimize failure. Of course, you could expend resources to push yourself into ABT (Anything But Tentacles) range, but A) That would be extremely expensive, in A Phantom of Truth on Standard you might need to hit 11 depending on how much doom is in play, 2) Any resources you use to minimize failure on Hunted are resources you could have used to deal with any Byakhee it ended up spawning instead, and Γ) The is always a risk, but investing so many resources into resisting Hunted means that pulling the turns from bad to catastrophic, especially since, as we established in point 2), that means the resources you lost to the aren't available to fight the Byakhee Hunted spawns (which, given that you're digging 6 cards into the encounter deck, it's extremely likely to do).

Granted, this is mostly academic, the majority of the time I've drawn Hunted I've chosen to simply take it on the chin, but the point is it feels like a real choice. Unlike cards like Rotting Remains, you're unlikely to flat-out pass Hunted by Byakhee, turning your focus from "What are the odds expending this resource will let me pass?" to "What are the odds that expending this resource will mitigate my failure sufficiently to avoid the worst-case scenario?" Even going from 6 down to 5 down substantially reduces your chance of finding an enemy, forcing you to consider not just the chaos bag but the composition of the encounter deck. How many Byakhee are already in play or in the discard pile? If horror is a problem, how many Omen cards are left in the encounter deck?

What do you choose to do?

There's the odd situation in which it's probable to fail and find one (Byakhee/Omen) and you actually want to maximize the number of drawn cards to be able to choose instead of being forced to draw the only card revealed with that trait. — AlderSign · 310
It — OnThinIce · 26
...just a Byakhee enemy with 1 extra horror(sometimes less), like every deep one enemy. nothing to be serious. — OnThinIce · 26
Deny Existence

I tried to put this card in my Rex Murphy deck but the deck builder gives out a "Contains forbidden cards (cards not permitted by Investigator)"- error. I am pretty sure this card is allowed on Rex, so how could I contact you people so you may fix this, if it is an error on arkhamdb and not on my part? Thanks :)

johniemi · 3
Nevermind, I — johniemi · 3
m an idiot :) already had four non-seeker cards in the build, thus adding two Deny Existence cards made Rex go over his limit of five total non Seeker cards. — johniemi · 3